Coal prices have risen 30 per cent from their low in March. However, for the second half of 2009, there are still risks of tight coal supply. In China, many domestic producers have arbitraged the low offshore prices with higher onshore prices, which has made demand look stronger than it was. So, correction is expected in the new two months. However, strong demand for thermal coal in China and India is expected to help Asia avoid the first fall in imports for a decade this year, and push import growth even higher in 2010.
After a dark winter for Canadian coal producers, spring supply contract negotiations halfway around the world are providing a glimmer of light at the end of the mine shaft. As news of the pricing agreement filtered through the market last week, Canadian coal stocks have reaped the benefits.
Rio Tinto recently gave a big break to JSW Steel Ltd. on an existing contract. The mining major’s move to cut its coking coal prices for the Indian company by 43 percent are a dark sign of things to come for coking coal miners.
There’s no denying the worldwide recession has led to global cutbacks in the demand for most commodities, coal included. Coal producers like Peabody Energy have been forced to curtail production as demand slumps from both the steel industry and the energy sector.
Supply and demand of coal is expected to be a bit more important in 2009, with the almost irrational movement along with crude oil turning out to be less of an influence.
Along with most in the commodity sector, the coal industry will likely take a hit in 2009, but many analysts are confident that coal demand along with prices will rebound in 2010. As energy demand from developing countries like China and India recovers, we’ll once again see upward movement in the coal price.
The metallurgical coal industry is set to face significant declines in price, according to analyst’s forecasts. Bloomberg conducted a survey of a nine-analyst panel whose median forecast placed the price of coking coal at $200 a tonne by April 2009. The individual forecasts ranged from $140 to $305 a tonne.
Coal is the best commodity to get into right now. The recent global economic downturn has led to a slump in coal demand and production cuts, however serious investors are not shying away from what they see as a most opportune time.
Despite the global financial crisis, several major coal producers reported increased profits this week, including Gloucester Coal, Console Energy, Alliance Resource Partners, Arch Coal, Walter Industries, and Alpha Natural Resources.
If you are lucky, Santa Claus may leave a huge lump of coal in your stocking this year. With near-month futures contracts trading in the $120-$130 per ton range, the formerly shunned fuel is more valuable than ever.
Monday, September 21, 2009
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