Most environmentalist groups are confident that an Obama presidency will usher in a new age of greener energy sources in the U.S. Some are even hoping to eliminate the 150 coal-fired plants in operation nation-wide.

Like other nations around the world, the U.S. is currently grappling with the problems posed by global warming and is looking for cleaner, more sustainable energy sources. Yet, it will be a long time before such sources replace U.S. or even global dependence on coal, which the International Energy Agency expects will take on a much more important role in supplying the world’s energy over the next twenty years.

If the U.S. were to nix coal as an energy source, the nation would become greatly dependent on more expensive forms like natural gas, for example. Natural gas demand is already overtaking supply and costs three times as much as coal, of which the U.S. has at least 250 years worth of supply.

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT) has said that coal is something the U.S. cannot do without for the foreseeable future. Given the current economic crisis it’s foolish not to accept that coal, the nation’s most abundant and affordable power source, will continue to play a major role in America’s energy consumption.

It’s also short-sighted to believe cleaner energy technologies and sources are even close to being capable of totally replacing traditional energy sources any time in the near future. Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and special adviser to the U.N. points out that “our current technologies cannot support both a decline in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and an expanding global economy.”

Population growth is another factor to consider. How will new and untried technologies meet the energy demands of a steadily growing population? In the U.S., the population is expected to grow from 300 million to 400 million by 2042. Although cleaner technologies like solar, wind and other renewable sources of power generation are coming online, they are far from ready to supply all of the nation’s energy demands.

The Obama factor

“My presidency will mark a new chapter in America’s leadership on climate change that will strengthen our security and create millions of new jobs in the process,” said President-elect Barak Obama to a global warming summit audience in California.

He is expected to place tighter restrictions on coal generated power, however “his ambitions could be reined in by the cost of such measures given a weak U.S. economy,” said Reuters’ Bruce Nichols. If Obama goes ahead with is campaign proposal to cut carbon emissions by 80 per cent from 1990 levels by 2050, the nation’s major utility companies will be forced to spend billions in order to comply, he said.

But some doubt the president-elect will be able to keep his campaign promises given the current state of the U.S. economy. It’s more than likely that the coal-fired power plants now responsible for generating nearly 50 percent of the America’s electricity will continue to do so for decades to come.

“Coal is going to be clamped down on from mine mouth to smokestack, but it’s not as though coal is going out of style,” said Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group Inc. energy analyst Kevin Book. “Obama cannot ignore the economic side of the story.”

There are some in the coal mining industry who worry Obama’s administration might shut down the entire coal industry.  “I think the impact on the industry will be huge,” said John Wellford of Marsh Fork Development Co.

However, most industry officials believe the state of the economy and the need for cheap energy sources will override environmental concerns as America enters its worst economic period in years. “[Obama] obviously is a man who can read public sentiment,” said Luke Popovich, a spokesman for The National Mining Association. The group believes unemployment and economic issues will “dominate the agenda for the foreseeable future.”

Another factor in the coal industry’s favor is the important role the resource plays in a majority of state’s economies, said Nichols. Although the newly elected Congress is dominated by Democrats, many of those congressional leaders represent coal-producing states. Book points out that coal is actively mined in 27 states and exists in 11 others. “There’s a lot of folks who can find their way to giving coal a break,” Book said “There’s only so far [Obama] can go before he gets in trouble with his own party.”