U.S. coal companies are looking to diversify. Just a few years ago the industry enjoyed a boom in coal-fired power plant development, but growing concern for global warming and rising construction costs gave natural gas and renewable-energy plants an edge.
Obama’s budget proposals have come in for flak, given that it is clearly set to scale back tax breaks and other incentives for domestic production of coal.
The years-long effort to develop a coal mine in the Otter Creek Valley has come to naught. Queensland billionaire Clive Palmer has also backtracked on his $60 b coal contract with a Chinese group. What seems to be happening here?
There is a real, physical demand for commodities and coking coal price is expected to jump by 36% in 2010, forecast analysts.
Coal companies are locking in some advantageous deals, as the broad economy juggernaut rallies forth. Look out for coal stocks in 2010.
China’s promises to clean up its act on a clean climate could well go up in smoke and add to the sooty blanket of smog that lines most cities. The country churns out 3 new coal-fired generating plants every week.
Demand for coal to generate electricity and make steel in China and India is expected to grow by 7-8% annually in the next five years, leaving the world chronically short of the fuel. Moreover, currencies linked to coal have outperformed both their emerging market and G-10 peers.
Arch Coal has completed the acquisition of Rio Tinto’s Jacobs Ranch coal mine for $764 million. For Rio Tinto, under tremendous pressure to reduce its $42-billion debt, the selling spree has just got underway. Meanwhile, rival BHP Billiton is sitting pretty with $18 billion in cash, and is eyeing 5 acquisitions. So is Western Coal.
Coal prices have risen 30 per cent from their low in March. However, for the second half of 2009, there are still risks of tight coal supply. In China, many domestic producers have arbitraged the low offshore prices with higher onshore prices, which has made demand look stronger than it was. So, correction is expected in the new two months. However, strong demand for thermal coal in China and India is expected to help Asia avoid the first fall in imports for a decade this year, and push import growth even higher in 2010.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
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