Coal Prices: Only Way Up

By Kishori Krishnan Exclusive To Coal Investing News

Upgrade season is on and for coal and things seem to be heating up. Coal prices appear to be at a bottom and credit markets are beginning to work again, which should provide a positive catalyst for the industry. Cancellations of mining projects stabilized in February as well. To add to the positive news, J.P. Morgan on Monday upgraded mining firms Joy Global (NASDAQ:JOYG) and Bucyrus International  (NASDAQ: BUCY) to neutral from underweight.

While US President Barack Obama‘s cap-and-trade anti-emissions policy may sound scary for coal, Joy Global CEO Mike Sutherlin is not nervous and looks to China for huge demand. China is “doing everything right” with its bountiful stimulus plan which involves huge infrastructure projects which will require Joy Global’s equipment for mining and steel production.

Sutherlin said the upside in China is “tremendous,” and coal is not being punished abroad the way it is in the U.S; eight per cent of the new power plants are being built in emerging market countries. Europe has twice as many coal-fire plants planned than the States. Sutherlin commented, “Everybody wants to get cleaner and greener, and we support all that, but at the same time, you have to have electricity to meet the demand of the consuming public and economic growth.”

The other firm, Bucyrus International is well-known in the design and manufacture of high productivity mining equipment for the surface and underground mining industries. Bucyrus International closed at $17.52 on Monday. So far the stock has hit a 52-week low of $10.62 and 52-week high of $79.50. The stock has been showing support around $15.39 and resistance in the $18.83 range, according to analysts.

Another coal major, Patriot Coal Corporation (NYSE:PCX) has announced mine rationalizations to bring 2009 production in line with anticipated sales volumes. These actions further the company’s management action plan initiated earlier in the quarter in response to the weakened coal markets. The company plans to further reduce 2009 production by approximately 2.0 million tons.

Regarding metallurgical production, the company plans to idle two contract mines serving the Wells Complex. Thermal production will be reduced through the elimination of Saturday workdays at the Hobet complex. Additionally, production start-up at the newly developed Blue Creek complex will be deferred until a point when the markets recover, the company said.

“In the near-term, coal markets remain weak. As a result, we have taken actions to further reduce our 2009 production, essentially eliminating uncommitted tons from our production plans,” said Patriot chief executive officer Richard M. Whiting. “Long-term, coal remains a vital resource in the world’s energy footprint. When coal markets rebound, we will be well-positioned to reopen idled facilities, particularly our low-cost Blue Creek complex.”

Patriot Coal Corporation is the third largest producer and marketer of coal in the eastern United States, with 15 mining complexes in Appalachia and the Illinois Basin.

Vietnam Coal and Mineral Industrial Group  (HST:NBC) has announced that of a total exploitation of 10.7 million tones of coal in the Q1. Of the total 9 million tonnes of clean coal already sold in the first three months of 2009, 5 million tones have been exported. The group has reported total revenue of VND 10.8 trillion, VND 6.9 trillion comes from coal production. Thus, coal exploitation in the Q1 was equivalent to 89 per cent of the same period last year and 28 per cent of the target set for the whole year this year.

North American Gem (NAG), after Monday’s closing bell, announced that drilling has been completed on its 37 acre potential surface mining prospect (the Saffle Tract), and its 130 acre potential surface mining prospect, the Dalton Tract, both in West Virginia.

Coal was intersected on Hole 1 of the Dalton Tract, giving a coal thickness of 3 feet 6 inches. Coal was intersected on Hole 2 of the Dalton Tract, giving a coal thickness of 2 feet 6 inches. Further coal was intersected at a depth of 143 feet 3 inches to a depth of 146 feet 6 inches for a thickness of 3 feet 3 inches. On the Saffle Tract coal was intersected at a depth of 41 feet 5 inches to a bottom depth of 44 feet 5 inches giving a seam thickness of 3 feet.